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Red175
449971.9
161965.1
450122.1
Blue104
133954.8
1033326.2
670650.2
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169134100150200250175104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+69Teleop
+71Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
8Coral scored#6
42Coral points31
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +55
26Coral scored#12
94Coral points43
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
112Total teleop57
Reef
11L4#7
13L3#6
5L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#21
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +71
8Foul points8
175Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.90.2
69.970.1
Auto19.7
Teleop43.4
End8.8
red by 17.2
1339
#11
54.81.2
54.052.9
Auto10.8
Teleop41.6
End2.4
Second
65.10.2
63.063.2
Auto16.5
Teleop40.3
End8.2
red by 14.9
50.20.9
49.748.8
Auto17.2
Teleop30.8
End2.2
Third
4501
#45
22.10.3
19.219.5
Auto6.8
Teleop14.5
End0.8
blue by 4.1
26.20.9
25.724.8
Auto2.9
Teleop23.0
End0.3