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Red159
449984.5
455022.2
406872.3
Blue157
161967.9
133953.0
593320.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions198146100250300159157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
7Coral scored#6
35Coral points31
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +5
20Coral scored#18
71Coral points66
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#8
12Processor points6
16Net points32
28Algae points38
99Total teleop104
Reef
10L4#6
7L3#8
7L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#33
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
159Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
84.50.5
85.384.8
Auto19.7
Teleop53.1
End11.7
red by 16.6
67.90.4
67.167.5
Auto18.3
Teleop40.6
End9.0
Second
72.30.5
73.172.6
Auto21.6
Teleop47.8
End2.9
red by 19.4
53.00.4
52.252.6
Auto8.5
Teleop42.7
End1.7
Third
4550
#38
22.20.5
23.022.5
Auto3.4
Teleop17.6
End1.2
red by 1.6
5933
#26
20.60.4
19.920.3
Auto4.0
Teleop16.0
End0.6