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Red110
294521.7
208337.1
364828.0
Blue92
906832.1
549314.0
748515.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions936305015020011092

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+14Teleop
+30Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave6
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
20Total auto6
Teleoperatedlevel
14Coral scored#16
50Coral points56
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
74Total teleop74
Reef
6L4#6
6L3#4
2L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#20
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
0Foul points12
110Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.11.3
33.034.3
Auto8.3
Teleop22.5
End6.3
red by 5.0
9068
#20
32.10.6
30.831.4
Auto4.0
Teleop28.3
End-0.2
Second
3648
#12
28.01.3
27.829.1
Auto7.7
Teleop15.0
End5.2
red by 12.7
7485
#13
15.20.6
15.115.8
Auto1.9
Teleop10.8
End2.5
Third
2945
#15
21.71.3
19.320.5
Auto3.3
Teleop15.9
End2.5
red by 7.7
5493
#35
14.00.6
13.313.9
Auto2.6
Teleop10.1
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed