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Red190
17524.8
17675.8
740787.1
Blue191
169966.9
19561.0
199132.6
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21418050100150200250300190191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+9
+1Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +10
9Leave9
7Coral scored#9
35Coral points45
44Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +1
23Coral scored#22
84Coral points79
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#4
12Processor points24
24Net points16
36Algae points40
120Total teleop119
Reef
11L4#14
8L3#9
4L2#4
7L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#39
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points2
190Total score191

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
87.10.0
86.786.6
Auto24.6
Teleop49.7
End12.8
red by 20.2
66.90.5
66.867.3
Auto12.0
Teleop48.3
End6.6
Second
176
#2
75.80.0
75.375.3
Auto19.6
Teleop47.9
End8.3
red by 14.8
195
#13
61.00.5
60.861.3
Auto17.9
Teleop36.4
End6.7
Third
175
#23
24.80.0
24.324.3
Auto5.0
Teleop17.2
End2.5
blue by 7.9
1991
#17
32.60.5
32.533.0
Auto5.3
Teleop24.8
End2.5