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Red162
715351.3
23730.5
23062.2
Blue130
99951.4
808540.0
22839.3
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159139050100200250300350400162130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+18Teleop
+30Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave9
9Coral scored#3
44Coral points14
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +3
18Coral scored#21
66Coral points75
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
18Processor points12
16Net points16
34Algae points28
100Total teleop103
Reef
12L4#9
7L3#7
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +32
2Foul points0
162Total score130

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#9
62.20.4
61.862.2
Auto17.7
Teleop37.0
End7.6
red by 10.8
999
#7
51.40.0
51.551.4
Auto12.0
Teleop36.9
End2.5
Second
51.30.4
50.951.3
Auto11.9
Teleop32.9
End6.6
red by 11.4
40.00.0
40.040.0
Auto5.3
Teleop27.9
End6.8
Third
237
#20
30.50.4
30.130.4
Auto5.8
Teleop23.5
End1.2
blue by 8.8
228
#24
39.30.0
39.339.3
Auto10.6
Teleop24.7
End4.1