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Red111
314637.0
363423.0
217026.3
Blue94
585616.6
216831.3
786943.9
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9487020040060080011194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+15
+5Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave0
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +12
12Coral scored#16
44Coral points56
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
6Processor points6
16Net points16
22Algae points22
66Total teleop78
Reef
5L4#8
4L3#6
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#23
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
12Foul points0
111Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3146
#14
37.01.2
36.738.0
Auto5.0
Teleop25.4
End6.6
blue by 6.9
7869
#11
43.91.2
39.540.7
Auto5.0
Teleop37.0
End1.8
Second
2170
#16
26.31.2
23.124.4
Auto4.9
Teleop17.8
End3.6
blue by 4.9
2168
#17
31.31.2
23.724.9
Auto4.8
Teleop24.4
End2.0
Third
3634
#25
23.01.2
20.621.8
Auto4.5
Teleop11.2
End7.3
red by 6.4
5856
#23
16.61.2
13.014.2
Auto3.0
Teleop11.4
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed