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Red170
632868.2
740781.3
808528.8
Blue123
206739.0
1041327.1
23713.2
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions208480100150250300350170123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+61Teleop
+51Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave3
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points20
40Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +44
19Coral scored#14
70Coral points50
3Processor algae#3
9Net algae#3
18Processor points18
36Net points12
54Algae points30
124Total teleop80
Reef
9L4#6
7L3#5
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
0Foul points4
170Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.31.2
82.281.0
Auto20.0
Teleop50.3
End11.0
red by 42.3
2067
#25
39.02.9
36.939.8
Auto8.2
Teleop23.3
End7.6
Second
6328
#18
68.21.2
67.165.8
Auto15.5
Teleop45.2
End7.4
red by 41.1
27.12.9
18.121.0
Auto2.9
Teleop20.2
End4.1
Third
8085
#15
28.81.2
28.026.8
Auto5.1
Teleop21.4
End2.3
red by 15.6
237
#27
13.22.9
9.412.3
Auto5.6
Teleop7.1
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned39%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
90%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsMissed66%Barge oddsEarned