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Red111
318215.6
169963.2
206739.0
Blue113
500035.9
17661.4
17528.9
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions137158050100200250300350111113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+26
Endgame+14
Fouls+2
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave0
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points30
20Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +16
14Coral scored#15
49Coral points53
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#5
6Processor points6
8Net points20
14Algae points26
63Total teleop79
Reef
6L4#8
6L3#6
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
12Foul points0
111Total score113

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1699
#16
63.23.0
64.861.8
Auto10.2
Teleop46.2
End6.9
red by 1.8
176
#14
61.42.8
73.370.5
Auto17.3
Teleop40.1
End4.0
Second
2067
#25
39.03.0
42.439.4
Auto8.2
Teleop23.3
End7.6
red by 3.2
5000
#13
35.92.8
43.440.7
Auto13.1
Teleop19.5
End3.2
Third
3182
#21
15.63.0
25.622.6
Auto2.9
Teleop9.6
End3.1
blue by 13.4
175
#3
28.92.8
26.623.8
Auto6.4
Teleop20.3
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsMissed95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsMissed