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Red52
173022.2
509810.8
176432.7
Blue61
999017.8
198211.3
180218.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105380501502005261

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+11
Endgame+9
Fouls+9
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave0
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +18
5Coral scored#11
19Coral points39
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
6Processor points0
8Net points12
14Algae points12
33Total teleop51
Reef
2L4#5
2L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
0Foul points0
52Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1764
#33
32.73.1
34.231.1
Auto8.6
Teleop22.5
End1.6
red by 14.0
1802
#25
18.70.2
20.520.7
Auto1.6
Teleop17.1
End0.0
Second
1730
#42
22.23.1
36.032.9
Auto4.2
Teleop15.2
End2.8
red by 4.4
9990
#26
17.80.4
10.210.6
Auto3.7
Teleop12.5
End1.8
Third
5098
#40
10.83.1
16.413.3
Auto5.7
Teleop4.0
End1.1
blue by 0.4
1982
#17
11.30.2
12.112.3
Auto4.4
Teleop4.7
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsMissed12%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed