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Red41
462818.5
634624.6
365418.1
Blue31
37197.7
808533.0
585612.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions76754050607080901001104131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+6Teleop
+4Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +3
4Coral scored#3
15Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
23Total teleop20
Reef
1L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +2
0Cage & park2
0Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
6Foul points0
41Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6346
#13
24.64.1
24.520.3
Auto4.6
Teleop20.0
End0.0
blue by 8.3
8085
#15
33.04.4
31.527.1
Auto4.3
Teleop23.3
End5.3
Second
4628
#17
18.54.1
15.711.6
Auto5.6
Teleop12.4
End0.4
red by 6.1
5856
#34
12.44.4
16.912.5
Auto2.5
Teleop9.2
End0.7
Third
3654
#27
18.14.1
26.121.9
Auto3.5
Teleop12.9
End1.7
red by 10.4
3719
#36
7.74.4
17.312.8
Auto2.5
Teleop3.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed