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Red211
177189.9
85853.1
202252.4
Blue137
553044.5
348741.4
860871.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions228190100150250300211137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+34Auto
+80Teleop
+70Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +34
9Leave6
10Coral scored#4
51Coral points20
60Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +46
30Coral scored#14
107Coral points49
2Processor algae#4
5Net algae#5
12Processor points24
20Net points20
32Algae points44
139Total teleop93
Reef
21L4#5
10L3#6
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
47Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
6Foul points2
211Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
89.90.2
88.588.3
Auto27.2
Teleop52.2
End10.5
red by 18.4
8608
#35
71.52.8
74.671.7
Auto19.5
Teleop41.5
End10.5
Second
858
#55
53.10.2
54.554.3
Auto11.2
Teleop41.4
End0.4
red by 8.6
5530
#53
44.52.8
46.243.4
Auto10.0
Teleop33.0
End1.5
Third
2022
#64
52.40.2
50.950.8
Auto7.5
Teleop42.6
End2.3
red by 11.0
3487
#48
41.42.8
42.439.6
Auto6.3
Teleop31.3
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
94%Coral oddsEarned24%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed76%Barge oddsEarned