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Red199
7555.6
170692.6
581375.0
Blue209
448178.5
46957.9
132932.5
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions259174100150200300350199209

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
0Teleop0
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
Autonomouslevel
9Leave0
7Coral scored#9
35Coral points44
44Total auto44
Teleoperatedlevel
30Coral scored#24
109Coral points87
2Processor algae#5
7Net algae#8
12Processor points30
28Net points32
40Algae points62
149Total teleop149
Reef
11L4#14
9L3#8
7L2#8
10L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
199Total score209

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1706
#36
92.63.0
95.292.2
Auto21.7
Teleop60.0
End10.9
red by 14.1
4481
#16
78.52.0
78.080.0
Auto22.0
Teleop46.9
End9.6
Second
5813
#14
75.03.0
76.873.8
Auto17.7
Teleop48.1
End9.2
red by 17.1
469
#47
57.92.0
56.358.3
Auto17.3
Teleop36.7
End3.8
Third
75
#43
55.63.0
58.055.0
Auto13.4
Teleop36.1
End6.2
red by 23.1
1329
#69
32.52.0
30.732.7
Auto4.1
Teleop27.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned25%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsMissed67%Barge oddsEarned