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Red203
453450.1
350155.8
888473.3
Blue269
366386.0
300592.2
702865.4
2%Model gave it98%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions183269100150200250300350203269

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+40
Endgame+72
Fouls+66
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
11Coral scored#12
55Coral points59
58Total auto65
TeleoperatedBlue +33
20Coral scored#27
73Coral points96
5Processor algae#6
8Net algae#9
30Processor points36
32Net points36
62Algae points72
135Total teleop168
Reef
16L4#17
6L3#10
4L2#9
5L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#54
BargeBlue +32
4Cage & park36
4Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +66
6Foul points0
203Total score269

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.30.5
73.974.3
Auto18.2
Teleop47.5
End7.7
blue by 18.9
3005
#26
92.21.0
93.194.2
Auto19.8
Teleop61.8
End10.6
Second
3501
#39
55.80.5
55.355.8
Auto13.9
Teleop40.0
End1.8
blue by 30.2
86.01.0
86.287.2
Auto18.0
Teleop56.5
End11.5
Third
4534
#65
50.10.5
49.650.1
Auto14.2
Teleop35.1
End0.8
blue by 15.3
65.41.0
62.964.0
Auto14.7
Teleop40.4
End10.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
50%Coral oddsEarned98%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed99%Barge oddsEarned