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Red233
511240.1
580462.7
346775.4
Blue199
6781.0
46957.9
940150.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions190211100150250300233199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+34
+22Teleop
+22Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousBlue +34
0Leave6
5Coral scored#10
23Coral points51
23Total auto57
TeleoperatedRed +56
37Coral scored#23
132Coral points82
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#4
12Processor points18
28Net points16
40Algae points34
172Total teleop116
Reef
16L4#14
12L3#8
7L2#7
7L1 · trough#4
51Game pieces#40
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
12Foul points0
233Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3467
#24
75.42.5
72.775.2
Auto14.4
Teleop51.8
End9.2
blue by 5.5
67
#12
81.00.4
81.180.7
Auto19.3
Teleop51.1
End10.5
Second
5804
#33
62.72.5
60.262.7
Auto11.4
Teleop40.8
End10.5
red by 4.8
469
#47
57.90.4
58.357.9
Auto17.3
Teleop36.7
End3.8
Third
5112
#60
40.12.5
37.640.1
Auto4.6
Teleop32.5
End3.1
blue by 10.4
9401
#75
50.50.4
51.050.5
Auto12.9
Teleop32.0
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
62%Coral oddsMissed80%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned83%Barge oddsEarned