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Red185
581375.0
264037.3
348741.4
Blue161
335445.0
442261.2
1003217.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17712850100150200250185161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+4Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave0
5Coral scored#7
27Coral points37
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +11
17Coral scored#17
61Coral points60
4Processor algae#5
11Net algae#7
24Processor points30
44Net points28
68Algae points58
129Total teleop118
Reef
8L4#7
7L3#6
3L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#36
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
185Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5813
#14
75.01.8
73.875.6
Auto17.7
Teleop48.1
End9.2
red by 13.8
4422
#44
61.22.5
58.761.2
Auto13.4
Teleop39.4
End8.4
Second
3487
#48
41.41.8
39.641.4
Auto6.3
Teleop31.3
End3.7
blue by 3.7
3354
#59
45.02.5
42.645.0
Auto8.2
Teleop35.8
End1.0
Third
2640
#70
37.31.8
35.437.3
Auto4.9
Teleop27.2
End5.2
red by 19.8
17.52.5
15.017.5
Auto3.8
Teleop11.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsMissed