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Red214
204682.6
353965.0
87057.0
Blue195
146636.6
7555.6
35984.8
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions239195100150300214195

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+13Teleop
+3Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
6Leave9
9Coral scored#3
45Coral points17
51Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +12
21Coral scored#28
75Coral points99
4Processor algae#4
8Net algae#5
24Processor points24
32Net points20
56Algae points44
131Total teleop143
Reef
13L4#13
9L3#8
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
16Foul points0
214Total score195

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2046
#15
82.61.5
85.083.4
Auto17.3
Teleop57.3
End8.1
blue by 2.2
359
#10
84.80.6
84.084.6
Auto17.3
Teleop54.0
End13.5
Second
3539
#27
65.01.5
66.565.0
Auto16.8
Teleop41.8
End6.4
red by 9.4
75
#43
55.60.6
55.055.6
Auto13.4
Teleop36.1
End6.2
Third
870
#28
57.01.5
58.557.0
Auto13.7
Teleop36.1
End7.2
red by 20.4
1466
#41
36.60.6
36.036.6
Auto6.7
Teleop28.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
93%Coral oddsEarned66%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsEarned