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Red197
139158.6
694156.0
553044.5
Blue214
87057.0
694853.3
107361.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions179169100150200250197214

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+11
Endgame+21
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
8Coral scored#8
41Coral points38
41Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +8
28Coral scored#29
100Coral points106
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#5
12Processor points18
24Net points20
36Algae points38
136Total teleop144
Reef
15L4#13
12L3#13
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#6
44Game pieces#45
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
4Foul points0
197Total score214

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1391
#45
58.61.2
58.259.3
Auto13.0
Teleop36.1
End9.6
blue by 2.7
1073
#21
61.33.3
51.855.1
Auto15.6
Teleop35.6
End10.1
Second
6941
#73
56.01.4
53.154.5
Auto12.5
Teleop37.3
End6.2
blue by 1.0
870
#28
57.03.3
64.768.0
Auto13.7
Teleop36.1
End7.2
Third
5530
#53
44.51.2
55.656.8
Auto10.0
Teleop33.0
End1.5
blue by 8.8
6948
#54
53.34.0
39.843.8
Auto10.8
Teleop40.2
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsMissed98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed37%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsEarned