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Red198
442261.2
580462.7
149860.3
Blue188
402079.5
264231.7
350155.8
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions197178100150250300198188

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
9Coral scored#9
44Coral points45
47Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +9
26Coral scored#22
93Coral points78
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
12Processor points18
20Net points20
32Algae points38
125Total teleop116
Reef
18L4#11
7L3#7
5L2#7
5L1 · trough#6
42Game pieces#39
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points2
198Total score188

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5804
#33
62.71.2
59.260.3
Auto11.4
Teleop40.8
End10.5
blue by 16.8
4020
#17
79.50.9
77.778.7
Auto21.4
Teleop47.7
End10.4
Second
4422
#44
61.21.2
57.058.2
Auto13.4
Teleop39.4
End8.4
red by 5.4
3501
#39
55.80.9
52.053.0
Auto13.9
Teleop40.0
End1.8
Third
1498
#71
60.31.2
58.960.1
Auto13.8
Teleop39.3
End7.2
red by 28.7
2642
#62
31.70.9
36.137.0
Auto6.5
Teleop23.0
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
66%Coral oddsMissed55%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsEarned