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Red163
511240.1
87057.0
464667.5
Blue137
327684.2
85853.1
1065619.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions191184100150250300163137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+2
+18Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave3
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points16
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +6
24Coral scored#21
88Coral points74
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
6Processor points18
12Net points20
18Algae points38
106Total teleop112
Reef
11L4#9
5L3#8
8L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#32
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
8Foul points0
163Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.51.5
59.558.0
Auto13.3
Teleop46.3
End7.9
blue by 16.7
3276
#42
84.22.3
81.979.6
Auto11.0
Teleop62.0
End11.2
Second
870
#28
57.01.5
66.965.4
Auto13.7
Teleop36.1
End7.2
red by 3.9
858
#55
53.12.3
52.550.2
Auto11.2
Teleop41.4
End0.4
Third
5112
#60
40.11.5
36.735.2
Auto4.6
Teleop32.5
End3.1
red by 20.7
19.52.3
22.620.4
Auto3.1
Teleop10.3
End6.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsMissed78%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed