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Red178
34064.1
944273.0
694156.0
Blue227
448178.5
851365.6
348741.4
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions209210180190200220230240178227

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+27
Endgame+47
Fouls+49
AutonomousBlue +17
3Leave6
8Coral scored#11
41Coral points55
44Total auto61
TeleoperatedBlue +10
23Coral scored#24
82Coral points86
3Processor algae#4
7Net algae#7
18Processor points24
28Net points28
46Algae points52
128Total teleop138
Reef
12L4#15
10L3#8
4L2#7
5L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +49
0Foul points2
178Total score227

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9442
#52
73.01.4
73.171.7
Auto13.9
Teleop57.7
End1.4
blue by 5.5
4481
#16
78.52.2
79.481.5
Auto22.0
Teleop46.9
End9.6
Second
340
#7
64.11.4
67.065.7
Auto16.9
Teleop38.6
End8.6
blue by 1.5
8513
#22
65.62.2
69.171.3
Auto19.5
Teleop35.1
End11.0
Third
6941
#73
56.01.4
55.654.3
Auto12.5
Teleop37.3
End6.2
red by 14.6
3487
#48
41.42.2
40.943.1
Auto6.3
Teleop31.3
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
77%Coral oddsMissed35%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsMissed88%Barge oddsEarned