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Red270
300592.2
745797.1
402079.5
Blue191
448178.5
632983.3
581375.0
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions293255200350270191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+67Teleop
+79Endgame
+79Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave0
12Coral scored#10
59Coral points51
68Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +50
34Coral scored#21
124Coral points76
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
18Processor points12
24Net points28
42Algae points40
166Total teleop116
Reef
17L4#12
12L3#8
10L2#7
7L1 · trough#4
55Game pieces#40
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +79
0Foul points0
270Total score191

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
97.10.2
99.198.9
Auto24.6
Teleop62.2
End10.2
red by 13.8
83.31.2
84.082.8
Auto21.0
Teleop51.8
End10.5
Second
3005
#26
92.20.2
94.294.0
Auto19.8
Teleop61.8
End10.6
red by 13.7
4481
#16
78.51.2
79.178.0
Auto22.0
Teleop46.9
End9.6
Third
4020
#17
79.50.2
80.580.3
Auto21.4
Teleop47.7
End10.4
red by 4.5
5813
#14
75.01.2
75.674.4
Auto17.7
Teleop48.1
End9.2