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Red165
725767.8
317374.8
389139.2
Blue185
699569.7
400554.7
903260.3
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184178140160200220165185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+40
Endgame+20
Fouls+20
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave3
6Coral scored#5
30Coral points24
33Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +46
21Coral scored#27
74Coral points98
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#9
12Processor points18
20Net points36
32Algae points54
106Total teleop152
Reef
10L4#11
8L3#8
5L2#8
4L1 · trough#5
34Game pieces#44
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +20
0Foul points0
165Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3173
#45
74.81.3
69.968.6
Auto17.8
Teleop45.4
End11.7
red by 5.1
6995
#13
69.70.5
60.560.9
Auto17.3
Teleop45.2
End7.3
Second
7257
#33
67.81.3
59.758.5
Auto14.3
Teleop44.7
End8.8
red by 7.5
9032
#43
60.30.5
57.858.3
Auto11.7
Teleop45.3
End3.3
Third
3891
#46
39.21.5
43.241.6
Auto8.7
Teleop28.1
End2.4
blue by 15.4
4005
#29
54.70.5
48.549.0
Auto9.5
Teleop35.6
End9.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
56%Coral oddsMissed43%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsMissed