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Red189
325659.5
614645.1
325574.5
Blue104
928044.3
1069825.9
49467.6
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18115150100200250189104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+61Teleop
+81Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
9Leave3
5Coral scored#1
27Coral points6
36Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +34
20Coral scored#17
71Coral points61
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#3
18Processor points6
24Net points12
42Algae points18
113Total teleop79
Reef
7L4#7
9L3#5
7L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#22
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +85
4Foul points0
189Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3255
#39
74.50.7
68.969.7
Auto15.7
Teleop48.1
End10.6
red by 6.9
494
#47
67.63.1
72.269.1
Auto15.0
Teleop41.8
End10.8
Second
3256
#58
59.50.7
55.456.1
Auto11.8
Teleop39.0
End8.7
red by 15.2
9280
#66
44.33.1
43.440.3
Auto5.0
Teleop37.0
End2.3
Third
6146
#53
45.10.7
38.439.2
Auto4.7
Teleop34.9
End5.5
red by 19.2
25.93.1
24.121.0
Auto1.5
Teleop18.4
End6.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned41%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsEarned