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Red166
919947.6
450063.7
184743.4
Blue154
719752.5
725767.8
601737.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157155130140150170180190166154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+6
+6Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave6
3Coral scored#6
14Coral points31
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +8
18Coral scored#22
65Coral points79
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
18Processor points12
28Net points12
46Algae points24
111Total teleop103
Reef
6L4#12
7L3#6
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#5
31Game pieces#33
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points0
166Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4500
#56
63.71.0
61.462.4
Auto16.0
Teleop39.7
End7.9
blue by 4.1
7257
#33
67.80.7
58.058.6
Auto14.3
Teleop44.7
End8.8
Second
9199
#48
47.61.0
46.947.9
Auto10.9
Teleop28.7
End8.0
blue by 4.9
7197
#60
52.50.7
53.854.4
Auto11.8
Teleop40.1
End0.6
Third
1847
#30
43.41.0
37.438.4
Auto6.5
Teleop30.7
End6.2
red by 6.2
6017
#44
37.20.7
32.132.8
Auto7.0
Teleop22.3
End7.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned55%Barge oddsMissed