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Red120
704841.1
634838.4
317374.8
Blue161
401320.7
461368.4
703463.3
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154145120140160180200120161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+21
Endgame+41
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
5Coral scored#4
26Coral points20
26Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +18
17Coral scored#22
60Coral points78
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
88Total teleop106
Reef
9L4#10
7L3#9
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
0Foul points0
120Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3173
#45
74.81.5
71.469.9
Auto17.8
Teleop45.4
End11.7
red by 6.5
4613
#42
68.41.8
58.560.2
Auto11.5
Teleop46.3
End10.6
Second
7048
#62
41.11.5
26.725.2
Auto8.5
Teleop26.1
End6.5
blue by 22.2
7034
#38
63.31.8
55.357.1
Auto16.6
Teleop40.9
End5.9
Third
6348
#41
38.41.5
39.538.0
Auto5.9
Teleop32.4
End0.0
red by 17.7
4013
#65
20.71.8
14.616.4
Auto4.8
Teleop14.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed41%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsMissed92%Barge oddsEarned