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Red250
49467.6
1678105.6
496764.5
Blue178
465578.8
930136.1
317374.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions249204100150300350250178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+62Teleop
+72Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave3
8Coral scored#8
42Coral points41
48Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +58
33Coral scored#21
120Coral points74
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#4
18Processor points18
28Net points16
46Algae points34
166Total teleop108
Reef
16L4#13
11L3#8
5L2#4
9L1 · trough#4
51Game pieces#36
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +72
0Foul points0
250Total score178

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
105.60.8
99.5100.3
Auto27.0
Teleop66.4
End12.2
red by 26.8
78.81.3
75.073.8
Auto21.3
Teleop48.0
End9.5
Second
494
#47
67.60.8
70.271.0
Auto15.0
Teleop41.8
End10.8
blue by 7.2
3173
#45
74.81.3
75.674.4
Auto17.8
Teleop45.4
End11.7
Third
4967
#27
64.50.8
57.458.2
Auto13.9
Teleop41.4
End9.2
red by 28.4
9301
#36
36.11.3
35.133.8
Auto7.9
Teleop18.3
End9.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
100%Auto oddsMissed94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
98%Coral oddsEarned69%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned99%Barge oddsEarned