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Red259
179696.5
263081.6
445171.0
Blue198
1678105.6
943270.2
566065.9
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions258253100150200300350400450500259198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+39Teleop
+61Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave0
10Coral scored#12
51Coral points58
57Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +40
33Coral scored#17
120Coral points62
5Processor algae#4
4Net algae#10
30Processor points24
16Net points40
46Algae points64
166Total teleop126
Reef
16L4#11
12L3#9
9L2#6
6L1 · trough#3
52Game pieces#43
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +61
0Foul points0
259Total score198

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
96.50.2
96.897.0
Auto25.7
Teleop58.9
End11.8
blue by 9.1
105.61.0
105.5104.6
Auto27.0
Teleop66.4
End12.2
Second
81.60.2
81.982.1
Auto21.6
Teleop48.4
End11.6
red by 11.4
9432
#23
70.21.0
70.269.2
Auto16.5
Teleop44.5
End9.2
Third
4451
#34
71.00.2
71.371.5
Auto14.5
Teleop50.1
End6.4
red by 5.1
5660
#28
65.91.0
65.864.9
Auto12.6
Teleop45.4
End7.9