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Red58
7929.6
87919.9
402415.9
Blue30
903018.7
930010.3
805715.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions494930354045555830

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+20Teleop
+28Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
7Coral scored#3
24Coral points11
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
38Total teleop15
Reef
2L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#5
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points0
58Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79
#7
29.61.0
19.920.9
Auto4.3
Teleop18.4
End6.9
red by 10.9
9030
#17
18.71.4
15.614.2
Auto4.4
Teleop13.0
End1.3
Second
4024
#13
15.91.7
10.412.1
Auto3.6
Teleop8.3
End4.0
red by 0.5
8057
#37
15.41.4
14.012.7
Auto3.0
Teleop8.3
End4.2
Third
8791
#20
9.91.7
9.511.3
Auto0.8
Teleop6.3
End2.8
blue by 0.4
9300
#34
10.30.8
9.68.8
Auto1.6
Teleop7.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed