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Red174
406546.2
17973.9
215210.2
Blue166
393243.1
23347.1
74430.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145127050100200250300174166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+2
+8Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave3
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points27
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +2
29Coral scored#24
104Coral points88
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
6Processor points12
12Net points20
18Algae points32
122Total teleop120
Reef
17L4#13
5L3#6
8L2#4
3L1 · trough#6
37Game pieces#36
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points0
174Total score166

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
179
#2
73.90.8
72.773.5
Auto12.6
Teleop51.2
End10.2
red by 26.8
233
#16
47.10.8
46.347.1
Auto8.4
Teleop35.6
End3.2
Second
46.20.8
46.046.8
Auto12.0
Teleop28.3
End5.9
red by 3.1
3932
#11
43.10.8
42.243.0
Auto11.7
Teleop27.2
End4.2
Third
2152
#17
10.20.8
9.09.8
Auto0.6
Teleop8.3
End1.4
blue by 20.5
744
#9
30.70.8
29.830.6
Auto2.3
Teleop26.1
End2.2