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Red52
462217.5
58725.8
618416.1
Blue43
94937.9
255616.3
36277.6
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions51310204060801001205243

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+21Teleop
+21Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave3
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +15
3Coral scored#0
11Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
15Total teleop0
Reef
2L4#0
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#0
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
24Foul points36
52Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4622
#24
17.51.7
16.114.5
Auto3.5
Teleop12.8
End1.2
red by 1.2
2556
#38
16.32.4
14.412.0
Auto2.2
Teleop11.9
End2.2
Second
6184
#15
16.11.7
16.014.3
Auto4.1
Teleop10.6
End1.4
red by 8.2
9493
#41
7.92.4
6.64.2
Auto2.3
Teleop4.3
End1.3
Third
5872
#28
5.81.7
10.89.1
Auto3.1
Teleop1.5
End1.1
blue by 1.8
3627
#40
7.62.4
7.75.3
Auto2.0
Teleop4.8
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed