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Red115
527616.0
618416.1
190249.5
Blue31
96274.5
555723.2
316415.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6659020408010012011531

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+50Teleop
+58Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave3
4Coral scored#1
18Coral points6
18Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +41
9Coral scored#3
33Coral points12
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
57Total teleop16
Reef
5L4#1
2L3#1
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#5
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +84
26Foul points0
115Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.52.8
27.730.5
Auto8.3
Teleop34.1
End7.2
red by 26.4
5557
#19
23.23.1
28.925.8
Auto5.9
Teleop14.4
End2.8
Second
6184
#15
16.12.8
15.017.8
Auto4.1
Teleop10.6
End1.4
red by 0.8
3164
#32
15.23.1
11.98.8
Auto4.6
Teleop9.6
End1.1
Third
5276
#39
16.02.8
15.518.3
Auto3.4
Teleop11.0
End1.5
red by 11.4
9627
#42
4.53.1
12.39.3
Auto2.9
Teleop1.3
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed