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Red141
743112.6
287262.5
152328.1
Blue83
527618.6
1001713.4
1032330.1
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions133745010015020014183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+38Teleop
+58Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points12
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +34
16Coral scored#10
59Coral points35
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#3
12Processor points18
28Net points12
40Algae points30
99Total teleop65
Reef
6L4#4
5L3#3
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#18
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points0
141Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2872
#10
62.51.1
57.558.6
Auto15.3
Teleop40.5
End6.8
red by 32.4
30.10.1
26.126.0
Auto4.3
Teleop19.0
End6.8
Second
1523
#15
28.11.1
28.829.9
Auto5.5
Teleop17.0
End5.6
red by 9.5
5276
#38
18.60.1
17.717.6
Auto4.1
Teleop13.4
End1.0
Third
7431
#41
12.61.1
16.817.9
Auto2.7
Teleop8.6
End1.3
blue by 0.9
13.40.1
17.117.0
Auto3.9
Teleop6.4
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed