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Red101
238355.3
1032330.1
Blue58
66869.2
743112.6
907724.3
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1186405010015010158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+41Teleop
+43Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +24
12Coral scored#11
42Coral points40
3Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
18Processor points0
12Net points8
30Algae points8
72Total teleop48
Reef
5L4#5
5L3#2
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
2Foul points2
101Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.30.6
49.348.7
Auto12.4
Teleop31.7
End11.2
red by 31.0
9077
#14
24.31.1
23.522.5
Auto7.2
Teleop14.6
End2.5
Second
30.10.6
26.025.4
Auto4.3
Teleop19.0
End6.8
red by 17.5
7431
#41
12.61.1
17.916.9
Auto2.7
Teleop8.6
End1.3
Third
9.90.9
14.913.9
Auto5.4
Teleop5.7
End-1.1
red by 0.7
6686
#40
9.21.8
14.012.2
Auto1.6
Teleop5.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsMissed49%Barge oddsMissed