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Red112
783318.9
674335.8
907724.3
Blue73
1063518.8
470722.1
1015434.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions84857580909510010511273

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+15Teleop
+15Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
12Coral scored#8
42Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
6Processor points6
12Net points12
18Algae points18
60Total teleop48
Reef
5L4#3
4L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
24Foul points0
112Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.80.9
30.631.5
Auto4.8
Teleop24.2
End6.8
red by 1.0
34.80.2
28.928.7
Auto4.4
Teleop25.4
End5.1
Second
9077
#14
24.30.6
22.322.9
Auto7.2
Teleop14.6
End2.5
red by 2.2
4707
#34
22.10.2
19.419.2
Auto4.3
Teleop14.7
End3.0
Third
7833
#17
18.90.9
17.718.6
Auto4.7
Teleop11.5
End2.7
red by 0.1
18.80.2
17.817.6
Auto3.8
Teleop11.4
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsEarned