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Red158
10854.1
238355.3
174418.4
Blue78
881742.2
152328.1
362718.9
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1359605015020015878

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+64Teleop
+74Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave3
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points6
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +36
19Coral scored#15
69Coral points53
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
18Processor points6
12Net points4
30Algae points10
99Total teleop63
Reef
9L4#6
9L3#4
3L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#18
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
6Foul points0
158Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.31.7
50.352.0
Auto12.4
Teleop31.7
End11.2
red by 13.1
8817
#23
42.21.4
39.137.7
Auto5.7
Teleop33.9
End2.7
Second
108
#7
54.11.7
48.350.1
Auto16.3
Teleop34.0
End3.7
red by 26.0
1523
#15
28.11.4
28.026.6
Auto5.5
Teleop17.0
End5.6
Third
1744
#35
18.41.7
16.418.1
Auto3.6
Teleop12.4
End2.4
blue by 0.5
3627
#19
18.91.4
20.318.9
Auto1.8
Teleop15.5
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
16%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsMissed