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Red78
926038.0
445913.3
100228.2
Blue53
884916.4
450919.5
332928.9
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74682040601001201407853

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+25Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave3
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points3
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +8
11Coral scored#8
41Coral points27
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
55Total teleop47
Reef
6L4#3
5L3#3
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
0Cage & park0
0Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
78Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.00.9
29.930.8
Auto5.8
Teleop31.1
End1.1
red by 9.1
28.90.4
21.921.5
Auto4.2
Teleop22.8
End1.9
Second
28.20.9
24.225.0
Auto7.3
Teleop19.4
End1.5
red by 8.8
4509
#24
19.50.4
23.923.5
Auto5.9
Teleop13.0
End0.5
Third
4459
#22
13.30.9
10.611.5
Auto2.9
Teleop9.7
End0.6
blue by 3.1
8849
#23
16.40.4
13.613.2
Auto2.9
Teleop12.3
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
7%Barge oddsMissed7%Barge oddsMissed