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Red90
141419.0
402649.3
753816.9
Blue112
873635.0
926047.5
560829.6
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7910105015090112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+34
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave0
3Coral scored#5
14Coral points26
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +31
9Coral scored#16
33Coral points56
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
6Processor points6
12Net points20
18Algae points26
51Total teleop82
Reef
4L4#6
4L3#7
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#5
16Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points0
90Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4026
#11
49.31.3
34.936.2
Auto10.9
Teleop30.9
End7.5
red by 1.8
9260
#16
47.51.6
38.339.9
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1
Second
1414
#43
19.01.3
20.121.4
Auto2.3
Teleop15.9
End0.9
blue by 15.9
8736
#26
35.01.6
25.326.9
Auto9.3
Teleop23.5
End2.1
Third
7538
#40
16.91.3
15.717.0
Auto3.8
Teleop9.2
End3.8
blue by 12.8
5608
#30
29.61.6
24.125.7
Auto4.0
Teleop23.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned7%Barge oddsMissed