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Red141
926047.5
886524.1
100242.1
Blue133
560829.6
164849.8
692535.9
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9312450150200141133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+12
+16Teleop
+8Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousBlue +12
6Leave9
2Coral scored#4
11Coral points20
17Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +28
27Coral scored#16
98Coral points56
1Processor algae#4
4Net algae#3
6Processor points24
16Net points12
22Algae points36
120Total teleop92
Reef
15L4#5
6L3#5
5L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +8
4Cage & park12
4Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points0
141Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9260
#16
47.53.5
39.943.4
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1
blue by 2.3
49.81.5
46.548.0
Auto11.1
Teleop30.1
End8.6
Second
1002
#18
42.13.5
26.830.4
Auto7.6
Teleop32.2
End2.3
red by 6.1
6925
#25
35.91.5
32.934.4
Auto6.8
Teleop27.4
End1.8
Third
8865
#34
24.13.5
15.619.1
Auto2.8
Teleop18.7
End2.6
blue by 5.5
5608
#30
29.61.5
25.727.2
Auto4.0
Teleop23.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed