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Red177
808039.4
745149.1
926047.5
Blue90
521910.8
691964.4
507426.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1311015015020017790

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+67Teleop
+81Endgame
+87Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave6
4Coral scored#4
18Coral points20
27Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +66
25Coral scored#12
90Coral points42
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
18Processor points12
20Net points8
38Algae points20
128Total teleop62
Reef
11L4#7
7L3#5
5L2#1
6L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#20
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +87
6Foul points0
177Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.13.5
36.840.3
Auto12.4
Teleop32.1
End4.6
blue by 15.4
64.40.3
60.360.0
Auto14.7
Teleop41.8
End7.9
Second
9260
#16
47.53.5
44.848.3
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1
red by 21.4
5074
#24
26.10.3
25.725.4
Auto4.8
Teleop18.7
End2.5
Third
8080
#28
39.43.5
37.340.8
Auto7.4
Teleop29.9
End2.1
red by 28.6
5219
#44
10.80.3
8.78.4
Auto3.6
Teleop6.3
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsMissed