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Red93
529333.9
1048235.0
100242.1
Blue103
753816.9
332938.5
886641.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1291045015020093103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave9
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
18Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +22
14Coral scored#18
49Coral points63
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
63Total teleop85
Reef
5L4#6
5L3#8
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#24
BargeRed +6
12Cage & park6
12Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
93Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1002
#18
42.11.8
41.539.7
Auto7.6
Teleop32.2
End2.3
red by 0.6
8866
#23
41.50.2
38.438.6
Auto8.6
Teleop30.5
End2.4
Second
35.01.8
37.435.6
Auto8.6
Teleop16.8
End9.6
blue by 3.5
3329
#20
38.50.2
40.240.5
Auto4.6
Teleop31.5
End2.3
Third
5293
#17
33.91.8
34.933.1
Auto8.9
Teleop22.8
End2.2
red by 17.0
7538
#40
16.90.2
15.415.7
Auto3.8
Teleop9.2
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
60%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsMissed