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Red168
691964.4
873635.0
168359.7
Blue173
745149.1
634053.8
926047.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16615880100120140180200220240168173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+13
Endgame+5
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
7Coral scored#9
37Coral points44
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +6
24Coral scored#19
85Coral points67
1Processor algae#5
4Net algae#4
6Processor points30
16Net points16
22Algae points46
107Total teleop113
Reef
11L4#9
10L3#8
5L2#8
5L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#37
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points0
168Total score173

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.40.2
64.264.4
Auto14.7
Teleop41.8
End7.9
red by 10.6
53.80.5
53.754.2
Auto10.0
Teleop35.3
End8.6
Second
59.70.2
59.559.7
Auto12.1
Teleop40.1
End7.6
red by 10.6
49.10.5
48.949.4
Auto12.4
Teleop32.1
End4.6
Third
8736
#26
35.00.2
34.835.0
Auto9.3
Teleop23.5
End2.1
blue by 12.6
9260
#16
47.50.5
47.447.9
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1