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Red244
183373.0
331831.4
177191.3
Blue109
745149.1
634053.8
926047.5
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions219153100200250300244109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+38Auto
+113Teleop
+135Endgame
+135Fouls
AutonomousRed +38
6Leave3
11Coral scored#4
55Coral points20
61Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +75
34Coral scored#16
123Coral points56
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
18Processor points6
16Net points20
34Algae points26
157Total teleop82
Reef
12L4#4
18L3#7
6L2#4
9L1 · trough#5
52Game pieces#26
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +135
0Foul points0
244Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.31.0
92.093.0
Auto27.4
Teleop54.3
End9.6
red by 37.5
53.81.0
54.653.6
Auto10.0
Teleop35.3
End8.6
Second
73.01.0
73.774.7
Auto15.3
Teleop47.7
End10.0
red by 24.0
49.11.0
49.848.8
Auto12.4
Teleop32.1
End4.6
Third
3318
#19
31.41.0
32.033.0
Auto6.6
Teleop21.2
End3.6
blue by 16.2
9260
#16
47.51.0
48.347.3
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1