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Red47
602322.0
670517.6
884913.1
Blue22
68874.7
17955.7
44596.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71510204060801001204722

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +20
7Coral scored#4
26Coral points14
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
6Processor points6
8Net points0
14Algae points6
40Total teleop20
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
47Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.03.2
19.015.8
Auto3.8
Teleop16.9
End1.3
red by 15.4
4459
#22DQ
6.64.2
14.410.2
Auto0.8
Teleop5.6
End0.2
Second
6705
#10
17.63.2
21.618.4
Auto3.0
Teleop12.8
End1.9
red by 11.9
1795
#27DQ
5.74.2
16.011.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop5.5
End0.5
Third
8849
#11
13.13.2
20.217.0
Auto2.2
Teleop10.1
End0.8
red by 8.4
6887
#29
4.74.2
16.412.2
Auto3.0
Teleop0.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed