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Red32
58281.8
88729.9
168333.2
Blue33
83212.3
671211.6
634030.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53502030406070803233

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+7
Endgame+9
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
2Coral scored#1
7Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
7Total teleop8
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#0
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
2Game pieces#2
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
8Foul points0
32Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.22.8
34.431.7
Auto6.7
Teleop20.6
End5.8
red by 2.3
30.81.5
19.918.5
Auto5.0
Teleop20.6
End5.3
Second
8872
#22
9.92.8
10.98.1
Auto1.5
Teleop7.4
End1.0
blue by 2.4
832
#26
12.31.5
11.19.6
Auto3.3
Teleop6.0
End2.9
Third
5828
#29
1.82.8
3.50.7
Auto0.9
Teleop0.9
End-0.1
blue by 9.9
6712
#17
11.61.5
15.313.8
Auto2.2
Teleop6.9
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsEarned