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Red36
671211.6
529317.5
38153.7
Blue5
58281.8
948013.0
95613.9
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions422106080100365

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+15Teleop
+19Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +12
2Coral scored#0
8Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
12Total teleop0
Reef
1L4#0
1L3#0
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#0
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
12Foul points0
36Total score5

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
17.51.3
13.712.4
Auto5.8
Teleop11.8
End-0.1
red by 4.5
9480
#21
13.01.8
12.811.0
Auto2.3
Teleop8.4
End2.3
Second
6712
#17
11.61.3
13.812.5
Auto2.2
Teleop6.9
End2.5
red by 7.8
9561
#31
3.91.8
7.75.9
Auto0.4
Teleop1.5
End1.9
Third
3815
#27
3.71.3
8.16.8
Auto1.0
Teleop0.9
End1.8
red by 2.0
5828
#29
1.81.8
0.7-1.1
Auto0.9
Teleop0.9
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed12%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed