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Red50
418924.5
873616.2
886512.5
Blue15
952214.6
17468.9
83212.3
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5642020801005015

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+39Teleop
+35Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points9
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +35
7Coral scored#0
25Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
35Total teleop0
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#2
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
2Foul points2
50Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4189
#12
24.50.2
21.321.5
Auto6.6
Teleop16.6
End1.2
red by 9.9
9522
#13
14.62.7
18.015.3
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End0.8
Second
8736
#16
16.20.2
14.915.1
Auto3.4
Teleop11.2
End1.5
red by 3.9
832
#26
12.32.5
12.19.5
Auto3.3
Teleop6.0
End2.9
Third
8865
#11
12.50.2
9.810.0
Auto2.2
Teleop9.9
End0.4
red by 3.6
1746
#19
8.92.7
9.36.6
Auto3.3
Teleop3.4
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
17%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed