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Red70
634030.8
75388.8
331826.7
Blue117
168333.2
83212.3
183335.0
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions707905010015020025070117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+27
Endgame+47
Fouls+47
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave0
2Coral scored#5
9Coral points26
12Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +13
8Coral scored#14
30Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
6Processor points6
16Net points8
22Algae points14
52Total teleop65
Reef
3L4#9
2L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +47
0Foul points0
70Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.80.1
30.830.8
Auto5.0
Teleop20.6
End5.3
blue by 4.2
35.01.1
32.733.8
Auto6.4
Teleop24.5
End4.1
Second
26.70.1
26.626.7
Auto3.9
Teleop19.7
End3.2
blue by 6.4
33.21.0
31.132.1
Auto6.7
Teleop20.6
End5.8
Third
7538
#30
8.80.1
8.78.8
Auto2.6
Teleop4.1
End2.1
blue by 3.5
832
#26
12.31.0
10.211.2
Auto3.3
Teleop6.0
End2.9