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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions452404060801003819

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+21Teleop
+21Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave3
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +12
4Coral scored#2
14Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
6Processor points0
0Net points0
6Algae points0
20Total teleop8
Reef
1L4#1
2L3#0
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#2
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points2
38Total score19

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.70.1
16.416.5
Auto5.5
Teleop9.5
End4.7
red by 9.6
3091
#18
10.00.4
2.82.4
Auto3.0
Teleop5.6
End1.4
Second
8872
#12
11.40.0
11.611.6
Auto1.9
Teleop8.7
End0.9
red by 3.0
9086
#33
8.50.6
7.46.8
Auto1.7
Teleop5.9
End0.9
Third
8815
#31
5.00.1
9.39.4
Auto3.1
Teleop0.1
End1.8
red by 1.8
8577
#32
3.20.6
12.111.5
Auto0.4
Teleop1.8
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsEarned15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed