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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7634020601001201404833

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+23Teleop
+21Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave9
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
5Coral scored#3
18Coral points12
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
6Processor points0
0Net points0
6Algae points0
24Total teleop12
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#3
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points6
48Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4189
#16
28.61.1
24.523.3
Auto7.7
Teleop20.3
End0.6
red by 10.2
5074
#11
18.40.8
15.815.0
Auto5.3
Teleop11.2
End2.0
Second
4509
#15
24.01.7
31.229.5
Auto5.3
Teleop16.9
End1.8
red by 9.7
14.20.6
8.88.3
Auto4.2
Teleop5.5
End4.5
Third
3091
#18
10.01.0
4.63.6
Auto3.0
Teleop5.6
End1.4
red by 0.2
9770
#29
9.80.5
7.26.7
Auto2.5
Teleop5.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsMissed14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed