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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9169501001509568

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+23Teleop
+15Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
27Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
9Coral scored#9
33Coral points31
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
47Total teleop45
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
12Foul points0
95Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.3
51.051.4
Auto22.1
Teleop42.6
End7.3
red by 21.0
51.00.2
33.033.2
Auto10.8
Teleop32.3
End8.0
Second
9522
#10
15.20.2
16.616.8
Auto4.8
Teleop9.1
End1.2
blue by 16.6
31.80.2
23.323.5
Auto5.6
Teleop19.5
End6.7
Third
6910
#34
3.50.3
12.212.6
Auto1.2
Teleop0.6
End1.7
blue by 21.9
25.50.2
9.19.2
Auto2.2
Teleop22.7
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed34%Barge oddsEarned